Commercial Modelling Expertise for £338m UK Connect to Work multiple contracts

Services provided:  
Commercial & Financial Excellence

100,000 participants

Estimated people supported through Connect to Work nationally

47 clusters

Local authority groupings across England and Wales

Five years

Planned national programme rollout 2025 to 2030

Overview

50 Degrees has supported more than ten Connect to Work opportunities across a range of providers, delivering commercial and financial modelling to inform bid strategy. Alongside bidder support, we have also advised commissioners on market design. Where we supported commissioners, we excluded ourselves from bidding work to maintain independence and draw on sight from both sides of the market.

Challenge

Connect to Work competitions varied significantly. Contract terms, pricing mechanisms, and commissioner priorities differed across regions, with some using outcome-based payments and other utilising hybrid and/or fixed-fee models. Other key elements, including referral volumes, caseload assumptions, and delivery contexts, also varied significantly. Bidders needed robust economics and scenario testing to avoid over-commitment, with commissioners seeking procurement structures that would drive delivery without sacrificing long-term value for money.

Strategy

50 Degrees implemented a dual-perspective approach, supporting bidders on commercial strategy while advising commissioners on procurement design. For bidders, we developed ready-reckoners, detailed financial models, and scenario testing across referrals, starts, and sustainment outcomes. We also integrated cashflow, indexation, and caps to guide price-to-win positioning. For commissioners, we advised on payment structures, contract length, and outcome triggers, excluding ourselves from bidder support where potential conflicts could arise. This approach ensured independence and transparency, enabling us to translate commissioner intent into practical insights for bidders in other opportunities.

Results

Our modelling enabled informed bid/no-bid decisions, clearer pricing, and stronger value-for-money narratives across more than ten opportunities. Clients secured awards in competitive clusters, while others avoided uneconomic contracts. Commissioner-side, our advice helped inform overall procurement design. By maintaining strict separation between commissioner and bidder work, we were able to uphold independence and offer valuable insight into both perspectives.

  • Supported more than ten bidders with tailored financial models, helping each assess viability and sharpen competitiveness in their respective Connect to Work competitions.
  • Delivered scenario testing, sensitivity analysis, and cashflow modelling that equipped bidders to make informed bid/no-bid decisions across varied contract structures, payment mechanisms, and commissioner priorities.
  • Brought commissioner insight directly into bidder support for other opportunities, aligning commercial narratives to commissioner expectations and positioning clients for success in a competitive, multi-region programme.

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